how far could it climb ? Has 1,1901 dollars at the close of the session of Wednesday, 30 August, the euro has an intimate knowledge of the peaks. It has even evolved beyond 1.20 dollars in the course of the day. Of course, it landed in 1,1898 dollars at the opening this morning (Thursday). Just as he crosses near its reference price, one of its first steps in 2002. Nevertheless, it is constantly increasing since the Brexit of June 2017, and particularly after the election of Donald Trump to the United States. Thus, he has earned more than 13 % since the first of January last, to express the mistrust towards the new american administration, according to some, exacerbated by the ranting of the north Korean regime. Or the force of european growth, according to others.
If the weakness of the dollar muscle of the purchasing power of european tourists, in addition to-Atlantic, it is a game-changer for the savings. Firstly, because it is a party to last, or even amplify, according to the experts from Credit Suisse, who expect a euro to 1.22 dollars a year, instead of those of Bank of America Merryll Lynch, which see it falling back to around 1.18 dollars. Then, because it suggests to make some trade-offs between different asset classes and within them.
On the compartment changes, the hour is clearly to purchases of euro : the common currency will continue to appreciate against the greenback, the pound and the swiss franc. The first will continue to suffer from the uncertainties on the Brexit. While the deflation of the second stimulus to the country’s exports.
This loosening of the dollar also pleads for a Fed monetary policy less accommodative. This mechanically damaging the compartment bond in the United States.
On the other hand, the appreciation of the euro against the u.s. currency could prompt the ECB to keep its interest rates low and to slow its purchases of european securities in the markets. Or even to raise its rates before the Fed, as suggested by Bank of America Merryll Lynch ? These sovereign debt securities of european would see a soft landing…
The equity markets of european and emerging markets will continue their catching-up
… While the equity markets of european and emerging markets will continue their catching up on their american competitor. Of course, a depreciated currency encourages exports of listed securities in addition to-Atlantic, in spite of a sudden slack of the CAC-40 slipping nearly 4 % over three months. This weakness is explained by the disability of the european companies, especially French and German, countries in which production costs are higher. Even more than in france, 55 % of the profits of the companies in the SBF 120 have their origin outside the euro area.
For a sector such as aerospace, which is produced in the euro and sell the dollar, a gain of 1 % of the latter started from 5 % of the profits. In addition to this industry-and its sub-contractors, the health (drugs and to a lesser extent medical equipment), luxury, and some oems autos, telecoms or high tech and very present in the United States are likely to suffer the disenchantment of the markets. Like other values very established out there such as Publicis or Sodexo, who in three months declined respectively from 1e,63 % and 19,58 %.
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conversely, the values of domestic seem to be insured to draw their pin of the game. Among them, those in the areas of construction, including land, transport, some distributors, especially banks such as Credit Agricole, Natixis, ABN-Amro, with a significant presence on the retail bank, and the current consumption, is well placed to take advantage of the acceleration of the growth on the Old continent.