The Gartner Hype Cycle is a well-established Instrument to classify the life cycles of new technologies. At the end of July, Gartner has created such a Hype Cycle is the first Distributed Ledger technologies (DLT).
The US-research and consulting firm Gartner is known for the annual creation of the “Gartner Hype Cycle”. The Hype-cycle files new technologies in the five stages of public attention and helps to recognize what stage a-technological Innovation is currently located. In August, Hype Cycle for Emerging Technologies “” now for the first time, the Blockchain among the five studied, the focus is on trends.
The five phases in the life cycle of a technology
The theory is that due to the public’s attention against a new technology is typically of the following phases:
The technological AuslöserDer summit of the coated ErwartungenDas the valley of the disappointment of the path of the ErleuchtungDas Plateau of productivity
The first Phase of the Innovation. A technological breakthrough solves tentative media reactions, “early adopter” to proclaim the good news.
The second Phase is that of exaggerated enthusiasm. Although there are hardly any real applications, to praise the mass media, new technology, on all dimensions. A broader adaptation. At the same time the first reports of the Failure are public, the mood shifts.
The result of Phase three is: “The valley of disappointment”. The reporting and the Hype gives way to disillusionment. Companies that are early, jumped on the train, fail.
In Phase four, the “path of enlightenment”, has laid the dust and left the substance remains. Although the coverage of the technology is clearly put in the Background, slowly those companies that make the technology actually usable. The so-called “Best Practices” reported whopping profits, the technology seems to have their permission.
It follows the Phase of Mainstream adaptation. The technology finds out strengthened from the niche, in which it is in the previous phases, sunk. The reporting takes the actual usability of the technology into a visor.
The Blockchain-the life cycle
The Blockchain technology is already dated to some extent. More specifically, the researchers Stuart Haber and W. Scott Stornetta laid 17 years before the publication of the Bitcoin White Papers as the basis for the revolutionary technology. Even if you take the White Paper by Nakamoto, is the Blockchain as a technology is almost ten years old. It is believed, therefore, that it is pitched somewhere between Phase three and four. But, is this true?
in fact, is the Blockchain according to Gartner, exactly on the threshold of the “valley of disappointment”. Gartner considers the technology to be relevant, but not yet Mature. It follows the usual course of the cycles will, therefore, is the first downhill, before we can look forward to the real substance behind the technology. This should take about five to ten years.
what time is booming what?
But Gartner is even more concrete. Not only the Blockchain technology in General, but also the various applications, in Particular lichens, the authors of the study in the Hype Cycle. So Blockchain applications such as Smart Contracts and “Blockchain-customer services” at the very beginning of their technological life cycle, while crypto-currencies and IoT applications are already passed into a more Mature stage.
the Only “complementary currencies” are already arrived in the flower of their time, and thus on the Plateau. The field of application of the “Digital exchanges” are, however, the only listed group on a good path in the direction of entry into Phase four.
conclusion: A guidance
The Gartner Hype Cycle is to be regarded as an orientation aid. Of course is not carved in stone that every technological Innovation, strictly adheres to the Gartner formulated processes.
Thus, an investigation of 2016, and comes to the conclusion that retro viewed in spotting scope only a handful of companies could be characterized using the Hype cycle well. Furthermore, it is expected that a significant part of the Blockchain-get applications on the way through the cycle of the image area before you have one of the later phases is achieved.
However, the Hype Cycle for Blockchain applications helps to get an impression about the Status quo of the DLT. Above all, one fact remains: We are still at the very beginning.